In the next ten years, the flow of new migrants could reach the record figure of about 230 million people, but in Europe the arrivals won't be enough to stop the declining number of working-age people, according to the governor of the Bank of Italy, Ignazio Visco.
Bank of Italy Governor Ignazio Visco said that between 2020 and 2030, the flow of new migrants could reach the record figure of about 230 million people, but in Europe, the arrivals "won't be enough anymore to prevent a significant decline in the number of [working-age] people."
Visco spoke on population and migrantion trends at the inauguration of the 2019-2020 academic year at the University of Cagliari on Friday.
Fewer working-age people in Eruope
"In the next 25 years, the number of people aged between 20 and 64 will go down by nearly 30 million in Europe, six million in Italy," Visco said. "The same age class will grow strongly in Africa and Asia, by about 570 million and 290 million, respectively, according to UN forecasts. The resulting migratory pressures will be very strong."
Visco added: "Above all in advanced countries, demographic trends are putting public finances under pressure... The aging population creates a rise in spending for pensions and healthcare that, all other things being equal, causes an increase in deficit and debt."
Environmental crisis a risk factor for growth
Together with the demographic problem, another risk factor for global growth is that of climate change. "The environmental crisis could reduce worldwide per-capita income by nearly one-fourth by 2100, compared to the level that could otherwise be reached, with strong reductions above all in the world's south and lighter ones (in some cases increases) around the rest of the planet," Visco said.